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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.